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Simon Phipps's personal commentary

Baby Duck Effect [WebTech]

Seems to be a day for dangerous quotes. I'm not sure where Jon Udell spotted my old idea about the Baby Duck Effect but he's partially quoted it in an op-ed on Java as a GUI tool today. Two things need saying on this so you don't get the wrong idea about my views on Java from his reference.

First, when I talk about the 'baby duck effect' I am explaining why the aspect of an innovation that gets popular is often different to the aspect that gets used first. It's happend repeatedly. With Java, applets were the iconic idea but servlets were the catalyst for adoption. With XML, document sharing was discussed but it was largely data flows that were the catalyst. With web services, published service aggregation was iconic but intranet applications look like being the catalyst. And so on.

In keynotes I humourously (I hope) say this is like a duck egg hatching - the little head pops out and the first thing the new eyes see becomes mother! In technology, evangelists illustrate innovations by promoting an idea that will catch the popular imagination, but insiders typically know that it will be something different that acts as an adoption catalyst. For example, in 1996 in IBM, it was pretty clear to us that Java technology was a server idea even when we were creating the Windows 3.1 version (I see my name has been taken off that one!).

Second, that doesn't mean I think the iconic idea is irrelevant or has failed. On the contrary, I believe that is the idea whose day is yet to come in most cases. So with Java technology, life as a GUI technology in devices is only now starting to become a reality. With XML, I believe document transfers al la REST will be a key to the future and that document meta-data technologies will be the bedrock of the internet in years to come. Right now, we are seeing XML document formats giving OpenOffice.org so much power that Microsoft has been forced to publicise the XML option in Office 11 way ahead of release. And maybe one day published web service aggregation will be a power to be reckoned with beyond force-fit proprietary solutions and cool prototypes.

posted at 10:02 AM (UK) | |